impact of U.S. elections on Taiwan 結果共6筆

Experts predict an increase in Chinese military activity against Taiwan following National Day, highlighting the impact of upcoming U.S. elections on the region’s geopolitical tensions.

Ivan Kanapathy shares his insights on Taiwan’s defense and trilateral relations with China and the U.S., including strategies against China’s military moves and the impact of U.S. elections on these dynamics.

Donald Trump’s suggestion that Taiwan should pay for U.S. defense has sparked concern among Taiwanese business leaders and political observers. Learn about the reactions from key figures in Taiwan’s industry.

Following the victory of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan’s presidential election, a report by the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) suggests that Beijing might escalate activities in gray zone areas. The report highlights Taiwan’s increased geopolitical prominence and its pivotal role in semiconductor manufacturing, making the stability of the Taiwan Strait a key concern for the U.S. and other Western nations. The report also notes that Vice President Lai Ching-te won the election by over 40% of votes, breaking the trend of switching ruling parties every eight years since direct presidential elections were implemented in 1996. The victorious DPP aims to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses and relations with like-minded nations while resisting negotiations with Beijing. Additionally, the party seeks to reduce Taiwan’s trade dependency on China and strengthen ties with significant partners such as Australia, Europe, and Japan. With no party securing a majority in the legislative assembly, the DPP faces a ＂minority government and majority opposition＂ scenario, which could hinder the government’s legislative and budgeting process and impact Taiwan-U.S. ties. Despite the election, cross-strait relations and regional tensions are unlikely to undergo fundamental changes. Taiwan’s vital position in semiconductor manufacturing and geopolitics ensures its continued rise in importance, with the U.S. and Western nations playing a crucial role in maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait. The upcoming U.S. presidential election in November is expected to significantly impact the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle, and a potential return of former President Trump to the White House might please Beijing, according to the report.

The George Washington University Professor Robert Sutter argues that Taiwan’s elections have little impact on U.S. policy towards the island, but the upcoming U.S. presidential election in 2024 could be significant. Both political parties in the U.S. and Congress have prioritized defending American interests and countering China’s actions, with Taiwan playing an increasingly important role. Taiwan’s strategic position, high-tech development, democratic politics, and free market economy have influenced the international order and led to stronger U.S. support. Sutter predicts that if Lai Ching-te, the Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate, wins the election, U.S.-Taiwan cooperation will further deepen. However, Sutter also suggests that the 2024 U.S. election, particularly if a candidate with an ＂America First＂ stance like Donald Trump prevails, could bring a shift in U.S. policy consistency towards Taiwan and pose challenges in countering China’s provocations.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) responded to allegations from the Kuomintang (KMT) that DPP vice presidential candidate Hsiao Bi-khim was excessively pro-American. Chen Shi-kai, spokesperson for DPP presidential candidate Lai Ching-te’s campaign office, criticized the KMT for its lack of understanding of economic trade issues and Taiwan-U.S. relations. The KMT, led by legislator candidate Hsu Chiao-hsin, accused Hsiao of being subservient to the U.S. during her time in Washington, citing a classified communication log documenting a bilateral meeting discussing the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden. Chen defended Hsiao by highlighting recent milestones in Taiwan-U.S. cooperation, such as the signing of the Taiwan-U.S. 21st Century Trade Initiative and efforts to resolve double taxation issues. Chen criticized the KMT candidate for illegally disclosing classified documents for political gain and called for an explanation of the motives and authenticity of the disclosure. This defense by the DPP spokesperson reflects the tensions leading up to Taiwan’s presidential elections, with U.S.-Taiwan relations remaining a significant political issue. The political drama highlights the intensity of Taiwan’s electioneering, where U.S. ties and Taiwan’s global economic positioning are crucial issues for voters. The impact of these debates on public opinion remains to be seen as Taiwan prepares for the polls.